Why vaccines were easier to rollout than test and trace
Robert Coville of the Times published his analysis of why the UK did so well on vaccines, but not test and trace. (Click Here). As it is paywalled he kindly put a tweet thread explaining his position (Click Here)
The key argument he makes is that the vaccine had a pre-existing database of the people it was targeting (by virtue of the NHS). And the UK delegated the responsibility for operations down to the lowest levels of the NHS that could do the vaccinations.
Robert argues that it was this combination of good “databases” and local knowledge* that allowed the vaccine rollout to work so well.
However I think he is missing simpler reasons the vaccine rollout was easier for vaccines than test and trace.
- Vaccines are a 1:1 problem, 1 vaccination per person per day. But 1 positive COVID test means 10s of close contacts to find.
- Vaccines are a standardised process, while contact tracing is a unique problem every time.
1:1 vs 1:10s Assumptions
Vaccines Apply and simple resource model. For every 50 people injected per day you need 1 healthcare worker.
Test and Trace Lets assume that for every positive COVID test the government has to trace 10** contacts of the COVID positive person. And lets assume that 1 call centre worker can contact 50 people a day.
You need far more people for Test and Trace than Vaccinations
As you can guess you need far more people to do test and trace than vaccinations. These numbers also undersell just how many close contacts each positive COVID case would likely have 100’s of close contacts if you wanted to do this properly.
Vaccines are more standardised than Test and Trace
Every vaccination should basically be the same. Check the ID, inject them, give a card for the 2nd dose, and a waiting area in case of side effects. There is very little need to modify the process in Carlisle vs Worcester. You can standardise this to maximum efficiency just like a production line.
Test and Trace on the other hand is a mess, the complete opposite of a production line. Every person has a different way of recording their contacts. Every close contact is for a different length of time and in a different environment. This is before we get to people not answering their phones, lying to you, and obfuscating who they met when and where.
*He even makes a reference to “Seeing Like a State”, which is a little odd as the purpose of databases is to make the society more legible to central bureaucrats.
**This is a very generous guess.
